Levels of electoral fraud in the Russian regions

In order to help assess the outcomes of 2021 State Duma elections, the 'Movement in the Defense of Voters' Rights "Golos"' created a reference analysis, dividing Russian regions into six groups based on the level of falsifications in the previous cycle of elections and voting.

The classification is based on the calculations made by Sergey Shpilkin of the scale of falsifications in the regions in the federal elections of 2016 and 2018 and in the all-Russian voting in 2020. Corrections were made for several regions, taking into account the data of 'Golos', including on falsifications in regional elections in September 2020.

For each group of regions, its share of valid nationwide votes in the 2016 State Duma elections is provided.

Group 1. ‘Clean’ – 10.2%
Group 2. Relatively ‘clean’ – 18.9%
Group 3. Some risk of falsification – 13.5%.
Group 4. High risk of falsifications – 25.1%.
Group 5. Rich tradition of falsifications – 21.3%
Group 6. Rich tradition of fabrication of results protocols – 11.0%