The new Kadyrov. Who could become the next head of the Chechen Republic?

The first news about Ramzan Kadyrov's illness date back to 2019. Since then, journalists have been trying to find out more about the health condition of the acting Chechnya’s leader. In 2023, Kadyrov was frequently absent from the news during important political events. At some point, he ended up in the Central Clinical Hospital – allegedly in a medically induced coma due to acute pulmonary failure.

Although the 47-year-old Ramzan Kadyrov and his entourage deny rumors about him feeling unwell, media and experts on Russian elites are discussing who might become his successor. What kind of person does the Kremlin need to be in charge of Chechnya, and who are the potential candidates for this post – in REM's review.

APTI ALAUDINOV - A POTENTIAL SUCCESSOR TO KADYROV?

Novaya Gazeta Europe has published an investigation that suggests that Apti Alaudinov might become a potential successor to the Head of the Chechen Republic, should the latter resign. Alaudinov is commander of the Akhmat special forces (a unit of Rosgvardia), who earned the Hero of Russia star for his involvement in the war in Ukraine.

Alaudinov was born in 1973 in Stavropol; he is three years older than Ramzan Kadyrov. In 2000, he graduated from the law faculty of the Chechen State University. During the wars in Chechnya, his father, older brother, uncle, and other relatives – about twenty altogether – were killed in battles with the troops of separatist leader Dzhokhar Dudayev.

After his graduation, Alaudinov started to work for the prosecutor's office and later earned the rank of lieutenant in the Chechen police. In 2005, Apti Alaudinov became head of the Organized Crime Unit, followed by his designation as Minister of Justice of the Chechen Republic. In 2011, Vladimir Putin appointed him Deputy Minister of Interior of Chechnya and Chief of Police. In 2012, Alaudinov was assigned the rank of Police Major-General becoming the youngest general in the Russian Interior Ministry. A year later, he defended a PhD thesis in political science.

It took Alaudinov nine years to climb up the career ladder from lieutenant to general. In his own words, his success is owed to Ramzan Kadyrov, with whom he had established “peace and order in the streets of [Chechen] villages and towns”.

“All my appointments, my whole career – everything is due to the tremendous support from Ramzan Kadyrov. We ensure economic growth, and we have gotten far away from [the consequences] of the war. Today our region is called one of the most peaceful in Russia”, quotes him Grozny-Inform.

According to media reports, Alaudinov might be involved in intimidation of Kadyrov's opponents, beatings of opposition members and their relatives, and even in murders. In 2017, Novaya Gazeta reported that Alaudinov was allegedly involved in the execution of dozens of people in Grozny, among them gays and people whom security officials labeled as “extremists”.

In 2019, Alaudinov was close to turning into Kadyrov's personal enemy. According to Novaya Gazeta, he allegedly participated in a plot against the Head of the Chechen Republic. Alaudinov himself denied the accusations: “I will seek out the dorks who write this dirt on me, and I will hold them accountable, so, shaitans, look for a place to hide”.

In 2021, Putin removed Alaudinov from his post as Deputy Chief of the republic's Interior Ministry.

The full-scale war in Ukraine has become a chance for Apti Alaudinov to breathe new life into his career. From the first days, he participated in the war as commander of the volunteer battalion Akhmat. Without ever serving in the army, he obtained the military rank of major general, and in April 2024 he was appointed Deputy Chief of the Main Military-Political Directorate of the Russian Armed Forces. It is his transition to military service that, according to experts, makes Alaudinov the front-runner for the nomination as Head of the Chechen Republic – should this post become vacant.

ALAUDINOV'S CHANCES

Kirill Martynov, editor-in-chief of Novaya Gazeta Europe, believes that the appointment of Apti Alaudinov as Head of Chechnya may play into Kremlin’s hands, where it has been decided to put an end to the republic's special status. At the same time, Martynov claims Alaudinov's relationship with Kadyrov to be shaky.

“Alaudinov presents himself as a man of a very different stamp [compared to Kadyrov]. He is more 'civilized', more integrated into the system and into the apparatus of the Russian Defense Ministry, which has been emphasized by his new appointment. I think it's a way of pulling the plug on some elements of Kadyrov's rule and making Chechnya just another regular Russian region”, suggests Martynov.

Experts believe Alaudinov's involvement in the war in Ukraine – both as a field commander and as an ideologue – to be one of his main advantages as a candidate for the post of Chechen leader. Dzhambulat Suleymanov, head of the Chechen United Force movement in Europe, explains: Alaudinov has formulated his own formula for justifying this war - “protection of the traditional values of Christianity and Islam in the fight against the global West”.

Suleymanov assumes the Kremlin may have chosen Alaudinov because of his “education, reputation, judgment and sanity, which are the opposite of Ramzan Kadyrov's image being irritating for many Russians”.

A Russian political scientist, who preferred not to be named, called Alaudinov “a compromise figure for the Kremlin” in his comment for “Kavkaz.Realii” media.

“He neither has an Ichkerian past nor a trail of a murderer and ‘golden gun’ like [Chechen Deputy Prime Minister Adam] Delimkhanov. In contrast to Kadyrov, he speaks coherent and literate Russian, and even demonstrates a certain level of intellectuality”, the expert reflects.

Alaudinov was also described as “intelligent” by another journalist with a proven record of working on and in Chechnya. However, she believes that Alaudinov has no political views of his own. She specifies that in Chechnya many people called him in a depreciative manner “Little Apti”, “knucklehead” and timid man.

“I was surprised by this version [of Alaudinov's candidacy for the post of Chechen leader], as the scale of his personality did not foreshadow such developments. At the same time, his figure is more understandable to the Kremlin because he is more 'russified' [than Kadyrov],” the journalist argues.

IF NOT ALAUDINOV, THEN WHO?

There is not much information about other potential successors to Ramzan Kadyrov yet. Some argue this is because the final decision on his replacement has not been made yet, and because the Kremlin would rather place its stakes on several figures at once.

There are speculations that Abubakar Edelgeriev, another former policeman and current advisor to Russian President on climate change issues, might become one of the most likely candidates. Edelgeriev is not the most popular Chechen politician, although those who know him describe him as an “educated and calm” man.

Edelgeriev is Kadyrov's peer and fellow countryman. Like Alaudinov, he used to be a policeman. He had continued his career as a civil servant before he was promoted to the position of Minister of Agriculture of the Chechen Republic. Then Edelgeriev got another promotion – this time to Prime Minister of Chechnya, and after holding this post for a while, he moved to the Presidential Administration.

Another potential successor of Ramzan Kadyrov would be Muslim Khuchiev, the acting Prime Minister of Chechnya. Khuchiev studied journalism, and in the mid-1990s and early 2000s worked as a TV correspondent. Then he switched to advertising management and, some years later, began a career as a civil servant.

His resume includes serving as Head of the Press Service of the President of the Chechen Republic, First Deputy Chief of Staff, and two terms as mayor of Grozny. Since 2018 Khuchiev has served as Chairman of the Government of the Chechen Republic. In this role, Khuchiev even acted as Head of the Chechen Republic for a few days in 2019-2020 – during Kadyrov's absence.

However, experts on Russian elites do not believe that any of these candidates could replace Kadyrov as Head of Chechnya, if for no other reason than that none of the potential contenders for this post is truly striving to get it. For the post of Head of Chechnya, the Kremlin needs a “new Kadyrov” capable of ruling the Republic “with an iron fist”. “I don't think anyone from Kadyrov’s close circle is eager to replace him. Neither is anyone from the intellectual circles. Hence, [Kadyrov's successor] must be a completely new person. And, needless to say, this person should realize that the secret of his success or failure will be buried in the Kremlin walls”, claims one of our interlocutors.