The Just Russia party distances itself from regional elections following the Wagner mutiny

The Just Russia party, the third largest in the State Duma (27 out of 450 seats), has decided not to nominate candidates in five out of the 21 regions where gubernatorial elections will take place in September 2023.

The party emerged in the mid-2000s as a social-democratic alternative to the Communist Party and United Russia within the political system crafted by the Kremlin. Over the past 20 years, the party's rhetoric has evolved from social-democratic to overtly militaristic. In winter 2021, nationalist writer and Ukraine combat veteran Zakhar Prilepin joined the party. Since the beginning of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the leader of Just Russia Sergey Mironov has developed close ties with the top commanders of the Wagner private military company and even posted photos with a sledgehammer, the symbol of the mercenaries’ lynching-style executions of "traitors to the Homeland".

News that Just Russia was withdrawing its electoral activity in some regions began to emerge shortly after the Wagner uprising in late June 2023. Experts differ in opinion: some believe it signals the falling from favor for the systemic opposition, while others argue that the party uses the uprising as a rhetorical cover-up for the internal splits. The fault line lies between the ultra-patriotic party leadership, keen on demonstrating loyalty to the president, and regional party members who are more attuned to local issues and often enjoy more support in their respective regions than the party as a whole.

This review explores recent developments in Just Russia’s regional branches and the implications of Prigozhin's "March of Justice" for the party.

Unjust Russia: 7 Million People Without a Candidate

The party "Just Russia - Patriots - For Truth" (formerly Just Russia) has decided not to nominate candidates in the gubernatorial elections in the Omsk, Nizhny Novgorod, Smolensk, Oryol regions, and Yakutia. In two other regions, the party might withdraw its already registered candidates. In Zabaykalsky Krai, the local branch has been “renewed”, and 1.3 thousand members were expelled.

The Omsk branch (Siberia, population 1.8 million) was the first to withdraw their candidate for governor. Three months ago, the region was led by a Just Russia governor, who resigned in April 2023. Putin replaced him with Vitaly Khotsenko, former Prime Minister of the so-called "Donetsk People’s Republic". Just Russia members in Omsk supported this decision, stating that the "president does not make mistakes" while the party leader Sergey Mironov described Khotsenko as a politician with "enormous experience and expertise".

In the Nizhny Novgorod region (European part of Russia, population 3 million), the party announced its support for the current regional governor. Nizhny Novgorod is the region where the car of the party's co-chair Zakhar Prilepin was bombed in May. Representatives of Just Russia believe that the current governor demonstrated his great character by providing assistance to the injured Prilepin. This argument was used as the reason for not nominating a candidate from Just Russia.

The Smolensk Just Russia branch (bordering Belarus, population 870 thousand) will also stay away from the gubernatorial contest. The initial plan was to nominate the acting head of the regional branch for governor. However, during Priogzhin's march, he expressed hope that Putin would replace the leadership of the Ministry of Defense, which was essentially an endorsement of the mercenaries’ demands. Apparently, that stance cost him the nomination.

The leader of Just Russia in the Oryol region (Central Russia, population 700 thousand), who actively criticizes the current communist governor, refused to run for the election, announcing that he does not want to collaborate with those who "discredit state power." Perelygin referred to the upcoming elections as a "political show", recalling the violations documented in the last elections.

The current leader of the Just Russia Yakutia branch (Siberia, population approximately 1 million), who has a seat in the State Duma, said that the presidential administration had not approved the candidates proposed by Just Russia. Initially, it was Tumusov’s own candidacy that had been declined. Following the uprising, the presidential administration advised Just Russia not to participate in the upcoming elections at all.

Not Sufficiently Pro-War: Just Russia Cleans Ranks of Disloyal Members in Two Regions

On top of the partial abstaining from gubernatorial campaigns, Just Russia has been rocked by two conflicts between the federal party leadership and its regional branches in St. Petersburg and Zabaykalye. In both cases, the federal center was dissatisfied with the regional colleagues' insufficient support for the war with Ukraine.

The Zabaykalye branch (Far East, population 1 million) of Just Russia was disbanded at the end of June, just before the start of the nomination period for candidates to the regional parliament. The federal leadership explained the dissolution of the regional branch by its "inconsistency with new goals and tasks", including the "insufficiently active" support for the war.

Earlier, in April 2023, all members of Just Russia in the St. Petersburg Legislative Assembly had left the faction. According to observers, one of the reasons for that could be the alliance between the party and the owner of the Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, and their shared ultra-patriotic attitudes.

Sergey Mironov and Yevgeny Prigozhin. Source: spravedlivo.ru

A Fall from Favor or Cover-Up: Did the Wagner Uprising Affect Just Russia?

The conflict between the central apparatus of Just Russia and its regional branches is not directly related to the Wagner uprising. This is the opinion of political observer Andrey Pertsev, who has multiple sources in the Presidential Administration. He believes that the presidential administration prevents strong Just Russia candidates in the regions to run so they do not interfere with the Kremlin's plans.

"[The refusal to nominate candidates for governors in the regions] is linked to certain agreements with the presidential administration. Mironov has already announced that the party will support Putin in the presidential elections, and a similar approach applies to the gubernatorial ones. However, there is a significant exception – St. Petersburg", clarifies the journalist.

Pertsev claims that the intraparty conflict in the "Northern capital" is indeed caused, if not by the uprising itself, then by the party’s ties with Yevgeny Prigozhin. The leadership of the St. Petersburg Just Russia branch is loyal to the incumbent governor Alexander Beglov (United Russia), who has a longstanding conflict with the head of Wagner.

Stanislav Andreychuk, head of the Golos Movement for Voters' Rights, also leans towards the idea that by distancing itself from the elections, Just Russia is using the uprising as a rhetorical cover-up. In his opinion, in some regions, the party wants to curry favor with the authorities, while in others it tries to save party funds. However, the internal crisis within the party is also evident – it is splitting into two factions based on the attitudes toward the Wagner PMC.

Opinions on Just Russia leader Sergey Mironov differ. Andrey Pertsev believes he will continue with his current aggressive course. According to Stanislav Andreychuk, Mironov has already toned down his rhetoric and will likely distance himself from ultrapatriotic statements in the future, as the status of Wagner and Yevgeny Prigozhin remains unclear.

Amid the war and the sympathy shown for Prigozhin's ideas, Just Russia is losing support among its voters. According to a recent poll conducted by the state-run Public Opinion Foundation*, Just Russia’s current support rating is around 3%.

*How to interpret approval ratings and public opinion polls in Russia? Margarita Zavadskaya, an expert on elections and public opinion surveys, explains it HERE.