No region in Russia has a competitive gubernatorial election campaign
12.08.2024
Golos, the movement in defense of voters' rights, has published a final report (in Russian) on the results of nomination and registration of gubernatorial candidates. Direct elections for the heads of 21 regions will take place from September 6 to 8, 2024. In addition, in four regions, including the occupied Crimea, governors will be selected by regional parliamentary deputies. REM publishes an executive summary of this report.
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The gubernatorial elections are taking place amid increasing voter discontent: prices in stores are rising, housing and utility rates are increasing, transport fares are going up, and many issues such as environmental pollution and illegal or overfilled landfills have remained unresolved for years. However, the Kremlin seeks to present a completely different picture — one of absolute support for the current government.
At the same time, the way election campaigns are developing in the regions shows that the authorities are far from being confident, avoiding even the illusion of competition. Even political heavyweights like former General Secretary of United Russia Andrey Turchak, who has been exiled to Altai, are reluctant to face any significant opponents in the elections.
To limit competition, the authorities are using long-established methods: abuse of administrative resources, manipulation of the "municipal filter", threats, labeling politicians as "foreign agents", or initiating administrative and criminal cases with subsequent deprivation of their right to run for office.
Under these conditions, Golos has been recording a decrease in motivation to participate in elections over the past few years. But unlike previous years, this year there isn't a single competitive gubernatorial election campaign in any region. Instead, there is only an imitation of competition.
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MAIN TAKEAWAYS
1. High rate of candidate rejections
During the registration stage, over a third of all gubernatorial candidates were disqualified — 34.7%. This figure is significantly higher than in 2022-2023 when the "dropout" rate was about 25%. However, similar to previous years, most regions have registered 4-5 candidates. There are only three exceptions: in the Republic of Altai, three candidates have been registered, while in Transbaikal region and the Samara region, six candidates have been registered in each. This consistent pattern from year to year indicates the manageable nature of competition in gubernatorial elections. The increase in the number of candidates allowed to participate in the elections broadens the range of voter groups represented, which could potentially boost the turnout of independent voters and increase the risk of a second round — something the authorities find too unpredictable and, therefore, unacceptable.
2. Decrease in the number of candidates for governor
The trend that "Golos" has been observing since 2022 continues — a decrease in the number of politicians willing to run for the position of regional governor. If we take the current figures compared with those from 2019, when elections were held in the same regions as this year, the number of nominees decreased almost one and a half times. Several factors contribute to this decline: the inability to pass the "municipal filter", fear of repression, and the diminishing appeal of elected positions.
3. Independent candidates are doomed to fail
In the context of unfair electoral laws and the purge of regional political spaces from non-systemic parties and independent politicians and activists, the institution of independent candidacy has become completely harmless to the current government. Of the 21 regions where elections will be held, self-nomination is allowed in only nine. This practice has been retained since previous elections when it was introduced in the interests of incumbent governors who distanced themselves from United Russia and therefore ran as independent candidates. In 2019, six governors chose self-nomination. This time, self-nomination has been retained in these regions, but only the incumbent in the Transbaikal region has taken advantage of this option. As a result, independent candidates were only able to register there: besides the current head of the region, two other pro-government candidates were registered.
4. The positions of political parties are weakening, even among "systemic" ones
Despite the formally large number of parties nominating their candidates for governor, it is clear that parties are not fulfilling their functions of cultivating politicians and competing for power. Out of the 25 parties registered with the Ministry of Justice, 20 attempted to participate in this year's regional gubernatorial elections, but only four of them nominated candidates in more than half of the regions. Moreover, in most cases, the candidates presented as competitors to the governors by the formally opposition parties play the role of mere extras. At the slightest threat to the desired results for the Kremlin, the authorities artificially restrict competition. The most absurd situation has arisen in the Transbaikal region, where only the LDPR representative from the parliamentary parties will participate in the elections. The situation with the participation of parliamentary parties in the gubernatorial elections in the Republic of Altai and Saint Petersburg is not much better, where besides the LDPR, the only other parliamentary party represented is United Russia. All five parliamentary parties are represented only in Bashkortostan, the Stavropol Territory, Kemerovo Region, and Lipetsk Region.
5. The Kremlin vs. The Communist Party (CPRF)
The CPRF lost five candidates at the registration stage, which is more than any other party. Communist candidates were unable to pass the "municipal filter" in Altai, Transbaikal region, Lipetsk and Orenburg regions, as well as in Saint Petersburg. All these regions are considered problematic for the Kremlin. The Just Russia party also lost three candidates—in Transbaikal region, Kalmykia, and the Khabarovsk Territory. In all these regions, Just Russia had nominated strong candidates, which is the reason for their disqualification. The Yabloko party failed to register any candidates.
6. The main tool for eliminating unwanted candidates – the "municipal filter"
The so-called "municipal filter" remains a tool of administrative abuse during the collection of signatures from municipal heads and deputies. The set of abuses is traditional for Russian authorities: signatures are collected centrally by regional administrations within the first days of the campaign, local deputies are subjected to pressure and intimidation, and they are not allowed to sign for the "wrong" candidate. Overall, it is worth repeating that the "municipal filter" openly fails to fulfill the functions for which it was supposedly introduced in 2012. It is easily overcome by candidates from "minor" parties which are approved by the authorities but unknown to voters, and at the same time it becomes an unbreakable barrier for genuinely strong politicians from well-known and active parties.
7. Gubernatorial elections remain a formality
To conclude, gubernatorial elections in today's Russia have been stripped of their essence and have nothing in common with the goals of elections as a political institution, as they do not serve to form and express the free will of the voters.
