Who is Vladislav Davankov – a new hope for opposition in the presidential election?

After the CEC refused to register Ekaterina Duntsova and Boris Nadezhdin, it became clear - in the presidential election 2024, there will be no candidate on the ballot who opposes the war in Ukraine and criticizes the government.

Nevertheless, prominent opposition leaders in exile continue to agitate Russians to go to the polls and vote for anyone but Putin. The most obvious choice for this voting strategy seems to be Vladislav Davankov, a presidential candidate from the New People party.

This review explores who is Vladislav Davankov and what are the chances of him getting the support of the anti-war Russians.

Vladislav Davankov’s Path into Politics

Vladislav Davankov was born in Smolensk in a military family. After graduating high school, he moved to Moscow, where he studied History at the Moscow State University. Later Davankov completed a second degree and a PhD in Sociology.

After his studies, Davankov made a career as a manager at businessman Alexey Nechayev's cosmetics company Faberlic, becoming its Vice President in 2013. Davankov took part in numerous of Nechayev's projects. In 2018, he took over as Deputy General Director of the non-profit organization Russia – the Land of Opportunities, founded on the initiative of Vladimir Putin. This project was supposed to become an open platform for communication and exchange for talented and socially engaged people.

In the same 2018, Alexei Nechayev became Putin's proxy in the presidential elections. Two years later, in 2020, he founded the political party New People. Its co-founder was Davankov, who later headed the party's Central Executive Committee and the 2021 State Duma election campaign.

The New People party stands for the "renewal on all fronts" and represents those in power "whose voices have simply not been taken into account before". The party's website says its goal is to "liberate the creative forces and rebuild the country for a comfortable life".

A State Duma Deputy

In 2021, the New People participated in the Russian State Duma parliamentary elections for the first time. In its campaign platform, the party advocated succession of power, a ban on one person holding the same post more than twice (including president), reduction of state administrative staff costs, reform of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, and the abolition of repressive censorship laws. The New People managed to overcome the five percent threshold and received 13 seats in the parliament. Vladislav Davankov got one of them, becoming deputy chairman of the State Duma and joining the Budget and Taxes Committee.

Here are several examples of Davankov’s legislative initiatives: replacing "offensive" names of Russian settlements, fining officials for insulting women, expelling migrants from the country for harassment, canceling homework in schools and blocking Internet users for cyberbullying.

After the outbreak of the full-scale war in Ukraine, the positions of the New People party members split. Sardana Avksentyeva, former mayor of the capital of Yakutia, spoke out against recognition of the so-called republics LNR and DNR a few days prior to the invasion. She said that the main Duma's tasks should be fighting poverty and preserving peace.

This statement was later removed from the party's website. Party leader Alexey Nechayev spoke in favor of Putin's decision:

"They [Western countries] tried to block us from technology, imposed sanctions, restricted our development. All this is not in Russia's interests. NATO weapons are already at our borders", announced Nechaev at a concert celebrating DNR and LNR "joining" Russia.

Shortly before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Davankov commented on the possible military scenario, calling it "disadvantageous for the residents of the DNR, LNR, Ukrainians as well as people of Russia" because "a war implies human casualties, sanctions, ruble-dollar exchange rate jump, and drastic increase in food prices". As the war actually began, Davankov preferred not to oppose Russian military action, although speaking in favor of peace negotiations.

"The Russian President has defined the task [of "demilitarization" and "denazification" of Ukraine]. It can be achieved in two ways. To commence another five battles for Stalingrad, putting thousands of people to death, or to negotiate. The fact that negotiations are still going on suggests that the President is admitting this possibility. While the military operation is underway, public discussions about the commander-in-chief’s strategy and condemnation of his actions are a form of betrayal, as is the assault on those authorized by him," wrote Davankov in April 2022.

In May 2022, Davankov's statements slightly changed. Honoring Victory Day, the politician thanked veterans of the Great Patriotic War and mentioned that today’s Russia likewise "defends the ideals of peaceful existence".

At the same time, Davankov spoke out against the spread of denunciation practices, which regained popularity with the beginning of the full-scale war and condemned the "overkill of partial mobilization". In December 2022, Vladislav Davankov and other members of New People were put on the EU sanctions list.

However, it is not only Davankov's ambivalent stance on the war in Ukraine that turned the opposition electorate away from him. It was his authorship in the draft law banning the change of gender markers and medical interventions when it comes to gender transition. The draft law was adopted by the State Duma in July 2023.

In autumn 2023, Davankov participated in the Moscow City Mayor elections, competing against the current mayor, Sergei Sobyanin. Having received five percent of the Muscovites' votes, Davankov decided to make a presidential bid.

Running for President

On 24 December 2023, New People joined forces with the Party of Growth to nominate Vladislav Davankov as a presidential candidate, making him the youngest hopeful in the 2024 election. On the day of his nomination, when asked by journalists whether Davankov was planning to win the election, the candidate grinned and replied, "[Depends on] what one considers a victory...". According to social polls of January 2024, one percent of Russians would be ready to vote for him.

Davankov is the only presidential candidate who, as part of his election tour, visited the border region of Belgorod, which regularly falls under AFU fire. His visit to Belgorod took place on 30 December 2023, right after one of the most serious shellings since the outbreak of the war.

"Do I want peace at any price? No, I have another point of view. [lt]...[gt] It is important to me that we resolve the issue of SMO (Special Military Operation) and do not leave it to our children. As someone who has worked in many countries, I wouldn't want to reveal my position on SMO 100%", said Davankov answering voters’ questions about the war.

In February 2024, after the Central Election Commission’s (CEC) refusal to register the anti-war Boris Nadezhdin as a presidential candidate, four contenders remained on the ballot. Besides Davankov, there are the incumbent President Vladimir Putin, communist Nikolai Kharitonov, and LDPR leader Leonid Slutsky. According to experts, the opposition electorate had begun shifting from Nadezhdin to Davankov, and Davankov's rating has started growing.

Before the CEC turned down Boris Nadezhdin’s application, Vladislav Davankov supported Nadezhdin and even signed in support of his nomination. In February 2024, Davankov promised to include in his campaign the main theses of Nadezhdin and other candidates who were banned from the presidential run.

Campaign Platform

A month before the elections, Vladislav Davankov presented his campaign platform.

"Like all of us, I dream of a great and peaceful Russia. But for me, greatness is when a country is not only feared for its military might but also respected for its breakthroughs in science and technology, sports and cultural achievements. [lt]...[gt] Only new people can build such a Russia, relying on the experience of the older generation. There are more and more free, modern and open-to-the-world people in our country. In the new Russia, everyone will be confident about their security and the right to happiness", outlines the program document.

On his platform, Davankov stated his position on the war in Ukraine: "Peace and negotiations. But based on our terms, and not on a rollback". In addition, the candidate proposed to give more powers and self-governance to the regions, advocated the revival of the freedom of speech and opinion, as well as the reform of courts and law enforcement.

Apart from that, Vladislav Davankov's election plan is built around social reforms that entail improving the quality of health care, education, social support of the elderly and migration policy.

What Are Davankov's Chances of Winning the Election?

It seems that even in this version, Vladislav Davankov's campaign platform looks democratic and oppositional to Vladimir Putin, who has never presented his electoral program. However, quite a few experts believe that Davankov’s orientation on anti-war Russians will not help him come even second in the elections.

Konstantin Kostin, Head of the Civil Society Development Foundation, believes that Davankov can only count on the support of those voters who were ready to vote for Boris Nadezhdin. Whether Davankov will be backed by Nadezhdin's supporters depends on whether Nadezhdin himself urges his electorate to do so, argues political analyst Ilya Grashchenkov.

Political consultant Yevgeny Minchenko, however, believes that Davankov still has a chance of coming second in the election after Putin. "He is a politician of another generation, of a different style. Davankov is a candidate associated with peace of mind and balance. His message might find a response among certain groups of the electorate", explains Minchenko.

Political expert Alexander Kynev considers Vladislav Davankov's campaign platform to be "the maximum of what can be said in Russia today".

"What is wrong [in Davankov's campaign platform]? In my opinion, everything is said correctly. It is about protecting people and the country’s development, and it is already very different from what is going on now. Isn't it?", commented Alexander Kynev on his Telegram channel.

Oleg Shein, a former State Duma deputy and left-wing politician from the Just Russia party, believes Davankov's plan is focused on granting social rights and democratic freedoms: "This is precisely what makes any country in the 21st century successful. And these values, like a magnet, will attract Russian citizens and, first of all, young people who do not want to “be patient a little longer” but want to live with dignity right here and right now", said Shein.

A source of Verstka media in the Presidential Administration is confident that Davankov cannot expect his electorate to grow due to Nadezhdin's voters: "What was Nadezhdin’s electoral image? It was an image of an ordinary guy living in the apartment next door, peaceful and experienced. Who is Davankov? A rich young man living in the apartment next door, peaceful and unexperienced! How can one entrust the country to such a person? Besides, Davankov will obviously never repeat what Nadezhdin said about the war and Putin. There were three major motivations for voting for Nadezhdin — the anti-war position, his image as an experienced politician, and the least evil of the other candidates. Only the last motivation applies to Davankov", said the source.

Representatives of Russian opposition in exile differ in their opinions about Vladislav Davankov. Blogger with one million audience and former municipal deputy Maxim Katz thinks that Davankov is the most suitable candidate for voting in line with the principle “for anyone but Putin”.

Leonid Volkov from Alexei Navalny’s team strongly opposed Davankov's candidacy: "He is a krymnashist [someone cheering for the annexation of Crimea], he voted for the annexation of the DNR and LNR regions of Ukraine, he is one of the war criminals, no better or worse than Putin, [LDPR candidate Leonid] Slutsky, [Communist Nikolai] Kharitonov, an absolutely scandalous personality. If we encourage everyone to vote for him, alright, he will gain not two percent, but six percent, and the Presidential Administration will proudly state: 'Here are all your anti-war votes", thinks Volkov.

It is likely that Davankov’s rating will decrease in the run-up to the elections due to his vague position on the murder of Alexei Navalny, opposition politician and Putin’s enemy, in a penal colony. "One can have any political views, but when young and strong people die in prisons in Russia, it is a tragedy. A tragedy for close ones and relatives. For everyone to whom Navalny was nearest and dearest". That is all Davankov could say, and it seems not convincing enough for many supporters of the "beautiful Russia of the future" [Navalny’s quote].